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The answer to how many B-21s the U.S. Air Force will field will not come soon, as U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) takes a long-term analysis of the bomber need and the service builds its case for the bomber’s role both in nuclear deterrence and conventional long-range strike.
The current program of record for the B-21 is 100, though service officials, Pentagon leaders and STRATCOM have all called for that number to grow. Lt. Gen Andrew Gebara, the deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, says the final number is reliant on STRATCOM’s analysis.
“But it’s important to remember this is also the backbone of our conventional force,” Gebara said during an Aug. 27 Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies event. “We aren’t building out B-21 numbers only for our triad, we’re also building it out for our long-range strike capability.”
The Air Force’s current bomber fleet plans are based on the ability to conduct short-term, not protracted operations. “Our bomber force right now is optimized for raids and small-scale, a few nights at a time (operations),” Gebara says. “There’s no guarantee that’ll be the case in the future.”
The B-21 is in early stages of testing, with the second flight aircraft hopefully flying by the end of the year, he says. The first B-21 took its initial flight in November 2023, and other aircraft are in ground tests. The flight will be “event-based,” he says.
“We’re not going to ever give them an artificial date that they have to make if it doesn’t bring the test program along to where they need to be,” Gebara says. The final decision on fleet size doesn’t need to happen for a while, as the program is in its early stages of production.
Congress, in some of the versions of defense spending and policy bills in consideration, is calling for increased spending to focus on increasing production when the time comes. Gebara says the potential influx of spending could “go a long way to help us facilitate and get to the point where we can build this thing at scale.” It also shows Congress has confidence that the program is progressing well.
“We’ve done a lot of work to hold changes to the minimum to allow the program office and the contractor to get after it, and it’s paying dividends,” Gebara says. The B-21 will eventually carry the nuclear Long-Range Standoff Weapon (LRSO), which is also in tests. Gebara says this is progressing well, with four flight tests so far this year alone.
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