Podcast: What Next For London Heathrow?

Aviation Week Network editors gather in London to discuss the latest proposals for expanding Europe's largest hub.

Subscribe Now

Don't miss a single episode. Subscribe to Aviation Week's Window Seat Podcast in Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get podcasts.

Discover all of our podcasts on our at aviationweek.com/podcasts.

AI-Generated Transcript

Karen Walker: Hello everyone and thank you for joining us for Window Seat, our Aviation Week air transport podcast. I'm ATW and Aviation Week Network air transport editor-in-chief Karen Walker, and I'm delighted to welcome you on board. Now this week several of our key editor team are meeting in London, and so we thought it would be a nice idea to bring us all onto this week's podcast. And it’s a beautiful day in London, warm and sunny, so we thought, Why not?

Joining me in the discussion are my colleagues and air transport experts: David Casey, editor-in-chief at Routes; Brian Budzynski, ATW and Routes managing editor; Chen Chuanren, China and Southeast Asia editor; Alan Dron, ATW Middle East and Europe senior editor; and Victoria Moores, European bureau chief. Last, but certainly not least, Kurt Hofmann, our senior air transport editor. So, welcome everyone. It's great to actually be with you in person for once.

And because we're in London, we're going to discuss the latest happenings in the on-off-on-again plans to expand London Heathrow airport, adding a third runway and improving the terminal areas. So that's the topic. We are going to have literally people from all over the world talking about this in the second.

David, can I start with you in terms of what is new? What's the latest developments? This whole Heathrow thing has been going on for a long while, but what's the latest things that's been talked about in the proposals?

David Casey: Well, yeah, you're absolutely right. It's been rumbling on for decades now, but Heathrow has officially submitted its proposal for the long-awaited third runway and they call it "shovel ready," so this follows the UK government's move to back the plans in January. Now the overall plan, I think it's priced at a whopping 49 billion pounds, so that's about $65 billion and that includes a 3,500-m. runway and a significant expansion of the terminal capacity. So, the aim is to increase Heathrow's flight capacity by 276,000 flights a year. So that brings it up to 756,000. And along with the runway, Heathrow is proposing a new terminal, T5X, and upgrades to Terminal 2 as well. Now Terminal 3, the oldest terminal, will eventually be closed and a big part of the plan also includes rerouting a section of the M25 motorway and building a tunnel in order to keep the traffic flowing smoothly. So, this expansion, it's going to be privately financed, so Heathrow's hoping to cover the costs without relying on taxpayer's money, and they're positioning it essentially as ensuring that the airport stays competitive. And overall, they envisage that this plan could increase passenger numbers from about 84 million in 2024 up to about 150 million. And they're saying as well that it will unlock about 30 new destinations.

Now, that's Heathrow's plan, but there is another plan on the table as well, which has come from a property and construction firm called Arora Group, and that's led by the billionaire hotel entrepreneur Surinder Arora. So that proposal is in direct competition and what they want to do, rather than build the full 3,500-m. runway, which would cross the M25, they're proposing a shorter 2,800-m. runway that avoids the M25 and they're also suggesting a new Terminal 6. And what they say is that this project will be designed that it can be delivered more quickly and there'll be less disruption to local communities as well. So, there's two projects on the table. They both are long-term plans. They're not going to be delivered soon, I'm sure we're going to, we'll talk about some of the obstacles that they might face, but essentially they are aiming for completion about 2035.

Karen Walker: Okay, and we all know Heathrow of course, is a major airport, major hub. Victoria, you live quite close to Heathrow, you're in that South London sort of area, greater area. What are your thoughts on these two plans?

Victoria Moores: I think the question here is what's going to happen and when, and from what David just shared, it sounds as though the words "shovel ready" are quite significant here. The fact that is this going to be the end of the will-they, won't-they? And one of the anecdotes that I heard is that every time Heathrow gets permission for the additional runway, Schiphol sends them cake. So, Amsterdam Schiphol to celebrate it happening again. Heathrow must have had a lot of cake over the years. That's all they're saying.

Karen Walker: It's a case of they get the cake, but they don't eat it.

Victoria Moores: Exactly.

Karen Walker: Alan, you also live in the London area and you've been tracking this whole Heathrow thing and all the changes for ages. What are the airlines' reactions? The major airlines in particular—particularly, obviously a lot of major airlines go to Heathrow, but in terms of the UK ones, British Airways and Virgin Atlantic, where do they stand on these proposals?

Alan Dron: Both BA and Virgin Atlantic would love to see Heathrow expand to allow them space to grow because as you're well aware, Karen, Heathrow runs permanently hot. It only requires the slightest problem to have major knock-on effects. David's already mentioned what that growth would mean. The biggest problem from both BA’s and Virgin's perspective is the cost of the new program, especially the program that's been put forward by the Heathrow authorities themselves. The airlines fear that costs will inevitably filter down to them and result in them having to ultimately impose cost increases on tickets, which is going to render them less competitive than other airlines.

Karen Walker: And less competitive as a whole, in terms of that's their main hub and what they're concerned about is people go to other hubs, Schiphol being one of those. Alan, again, with all this back and forth, why has the UK government, which at one point seemed very opposed to a building of a third runway, had done this apparent U-turn?

Alan Dron: Very simple. The current Labour government is desperate to encourage economic growth in Britain because the economy has been essentially flat for the past few years and shows no great signs of reviving. And remarkably, some politicians in the government with more than two brain cells to rub together have finally realized that aviation does actually help drive economic growth. So that's the theory. The big problem, of course, is that it's going to be years before any earthworks actually start to appear on site. And as we're all very aware before they even get to that stage, this is going to be in the courts with environmental groups and residential groups furiously arguing against any expansion. The UK's next general election is in 2029. Now that seems a long way away, but the UK's politics are in considerable flux at the moment, and frankly, nobody knows who's going to be the next government, and that means nobody really knows what that next government will decide it wants for Heathrow, whether the expansion will actually go ahead or not.

Karen Walker: You raised the sustainability element there and the protests … Victoria, that's been a major hurdle so far. There's been a lot of protests just on the sustainability issue about expanding Heathrow, in particular about adding a third runway. And we're talking about not just sustainability in terms of emissions and things, but in terms of noise and disruption to people's lives. What do you feel this expansion, if it does go up, would do in terms of progressing, or not, sustainability in aviation here?

Victoria Moores: Yeah, I think that obviously there's an environmental sensitivity in the UK and in Europe, which means that it's very much top of the agenda for both the local residents and also for the airport authorities [and] from the airlines about that question of sustainability. But I think there's been a shift in the conversation in Europe and the UK towards competitiveness and sustainability combined. It's the idea of how can you keep that economic growth model going and be sustainable? And ultimately Heathrow is a hub airport, and it's very, very important that you've got that connectivity coming out of the UK. And if you can consolidate a lot into one hub that has its own environmental impact where you've got that selection of destinations, rather than the individual points flying direct from every single airport—you've got that one hub. And I think the aim really from the UK government is potentially to encourage that one hub development to increase competitiveness, to fulfill that sustainability and the economic agenda.

Karen Walker: Right. Okay, so Kurt, your home is in Austria. You're almost never there. You are traveling to major airports all over the world, including a lot of European hubs and the major ones like Frankfurt and Amsterdam. What's your view in terms of will Heathrow start to lose out competitively if it doesn't get this expansion?

Kurt Hofmann: Well, first I'd like to mention that I was always, since I was a small boy, fascinated about London Heathrow because there's so many airlines from all over the world coming to Heathrow and this is amazing, still the different brands you'll see. But talking about the hubs in Europe in general, shifting—I strongly believe that the importance of the hubs in Europe are shifting more to the East to places like Dubai, Istanbul or Doha, because we have here in Europe, not only in Heathrow but also in Frankfurt, the challenges with the infrastructure. So, there will be always of course a strong hub [at] London Heathrow, but the other airports, which I just mentioned, the Middle East or in Türkiye, they have modern systems as well, 24-hour operations. So they are different compared to a Frankfurt, which is also limited. So, I'm not sure if much more traffic can be shifted to Frankfurt in the future or Paris Charles de Gaulle, perhaps like Madrid, which is a bit smaller. I think they have more chance to grow, but they don't compete directly with London Heathrow or Charles de Gaulle or Frankfurt. So, for me, a bit of broader picture, I think Heathrow needs more capacity. Yes, because all big airlines, which have Asia routes are flying also to Heathrow. But for me also, as I mentioned, the shift of the importance of hubs in Europe shifting to the East.

Karen Walker: That's interesting and a good point. Yeah, the whole world has changed, and the competition has changed. Chaunren, you live in Singapore, home of Changi Airport, one of the best known and most highly regarded airports in the world, probably. When you look at how Changi operates and how they've kept up with new development all the time ahead of the curve, and then you look at something like Heathrow, what are the things that strike you as most different?

Chen Chuanren: Yeah, thanks Karen. The last time I was in London Heathrow was about eight, nine years ago and coming back to London a few days ago, I mean nothing has changed [from] eight, nine years ago. And I mean, it's talking about airport expansion, third runway, the boat has sailed in Asia. I mean, you look at Bangkok, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo Narita—they all have the third runway up and running. And the governments there have recognized the importance of driving air hub for the economy. But for Heathrow, I think in the end of the day, it's also very important to get the basics right, the day-to-day operations running up and running. I landed on a Singapore Airlines flight to T2, and we were stuck on a tarmac for 15 minutes because apparently the gate parking guidance system wasn't working properly, so they have to restart that. And we got parked and next thing we know, a station manager came on board and apologized to us.

So apparently in Heathrow, they have application to ping the ground staff whenever there's aircraft coming so that they can be at a station promptly apparently. So, the application had failed that day, so the ground staff were late to attend our aircraft. So, it's little things like that that makes travel experience through Heathrow a little bit sour. And I personally think that we shouldn't normalize mediocrity. It's important to take people to task when everything is not running properly; they should be responsible. But I mean the end of day, I have to give credit when it's due that the new eGate is a pleasant experience for some passports. Nine years ago, I had to spend what, 40 minutes in the queue to get through immigration, but right now in the eGate, I was out in less than a minute. So got to give it to them for implementing technologies like this to make life a bit easier for travelers.

Karen Walker: Yeah, I concur. I've had some awful experiences at Heathrow. I mean, just awful. And I've voiced them quite loudly at times. I actually had a good experience this time for once. Everything worked really well, but that's not typical. You're right. I mean the least little thing in that airport stops working, but the eGates were amazing. I am on an American passport straight through, but to get the true American view, Brian, you are from Chicago, so you came into Heathrow. What was your experience coming into Heathrow?

Brian Budzynski: It was surprisingly smooth. I haven't been to Heathrow since about 2018, and I remember also just the line for immigration. I stood there for nearly an hour, but I did the eGates this time and I was through in just a couple of minutes. When the plane landed on the tarmac, we rolled up and I think we waited maybe seven or eight minutes for a gate to clear out for us to come into place. But I was on an older aircraft, a Boeing 767, but the deboarding process was relatively smooth, and then the movement through the airport was good. It was actually markedly different than my experience in O'Hare trying to get out, which there was a troika of electrical issues on the airplane that resulted in a three-hour delay, but the repairs or the addressing of the issues didn't really take up that much time. What took up that much time was getting the aircraft out of the pattern and trying to find a gate to get it back to, then waiting for a maintenance crew to come out and then waiting to be cleared from the gate and then waiting to be allowed to go onto the runway. And that's what ate up so much time. So yeah, just a solid experience. That makes me really hopeful that the O'Hare 21 project is actually finished ahead of, I think it's now 2034 they're estimating.

Karen Walker: Yeah, Chicago O'Hare has its own problems right now. I recently flew in there into Chicago from Spain and the arrivals for Americans, for American citizens, I mean the queue was horrific. It just went back and back and back and there were little kids in there and everything. What saved me was having Global Entry, which is a very good program, and so I walked past all of that. But yeah, I mean these big airports, they all have their own problems and they're not easy to solve.

David, what do you think after all this time, what are the chances that a third runway will indeed be built at Heathrow?

David Casey: It's a very good question, and I don't know the answer. I mean, I think it's been rumbling on for about 40 years. And who's to say it might continue to rumble on for 40 more. I mean, it's moving forward, but I think as Alan pointed out, there's some really big hurdles to overcome. The government's come out in support, citing the economic benefits. But even if the government wants this, the UK planning process is a bit of a minefield. We're talking about planning applications, public inquiries, then there's potential legal challenges. We've already heard from the London mayor, Sadiq Khan, who said he's going to fight it in the courts. As well, I think the UK doesn't always have the best track record of delivering some big infrastructure projects. If you look at HS2, which is a high-speed rail project that was first proposed, I think, in 2010; it was originally going to link London with Manchester and Leeds in the north of England.

But fast-forward 15 years, it's still not completed. It's been dramatically scaled back. It's only going to Birmingham now in the Midlands. And I think that's just a great example of how quickly things tend to unravel in the UK when you've got these big infrastructure projects and you're trying to push through some of these planning decisions. So, as Alan said as well, the political environment in the UK is still a bit volatile. We've got the possibility of a general election; it is going to come before 2029. It's unclear whether the current government will be in power then. So ,who's to say that another government could come in and decide that Heathrow doesn't need this? So, I think there's a lot of obstacles that they're still to get through, but we shall see.

Karen Walker: I think you're right, David. I think the one thing we can say safely is that Heathrow Airport will continue to provide plenty of fodder for our copy for quite some time. And meanwhile, but probably the only other thing we can say for sure is that Changi Airport will stay ahead of the curve and work it out properly. David, Alan, Victoria, Kurt, Chen, and Brian, thank you so much for joining me today. And also a big thanks to our producer, Guy Ferneyhough, and of course a huge thank you to our listeners. Make sure you don't miss us each week by subscribing to Window Seat on Apple Podcasts or wherever you like to listen. This is Karen Walker disembarking from Window Seat.